Duh? Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan makes his prediction for the upcoming holiday season. Without giving actual numbers, Pachter believes that Nintendo will still come out on top, but with the Smash Bros. blockbuster delayed until February, holiday competition will be much closer than expected.

“But instead of Nintendo being the clear winner this holiday, maybe Microsoft has a chance of keeping up. There’s not as much compelling Nintendo content this holiday without it,” said Pachter.

The analyst doesn’t think Smash Bros. sales will take a hit from the delay when it finally releases, but that Nintendo’s Christmas might be dampened. With the trump card out of the picture, Nintendo believes that Super Mario Galaxy will finally get the spotlight it deserves. Pachter, on the other hand believes that Activision’s Guitar Hero III will lead Wii sales this holiday.

“That’s the game that people who bought Wii for ‘Tennis‘ will want,” he said.

Wired