Wedbush-Morgan analyst Michael Pachter says that yesterday’s bannings of Manhunt 2 in some locations and assignment of an AO rating in others could end up costing publisher Take Two Interactive millions of dollars.
I had estimated [Manhunt 2 would generate] around $25 million in revenues for this quarter, plus around $15 million in reorders. It’s not clear to me whether Take-Two will:
- ship the game as is;
- re-cut the game and try to have the UK ban/US AO rating lifted;
- cancel the game.
It seems that since most of the cost is “sunk cost†[i.e., not recoverable], alternative 3 is unlikely. The trade-off between 1 and 2 is lower sales with option 1 and higher sales and higher costs (more development and some incremental marketing) for option 2. Without knowing what they plan, I’d say it probably costs around half of the potential revenues, but that’s just a guess.
In addition, Pachter doesn’t think the chances for a Manhunt 3 are likely, since the series seems to have run itself into the ground, at least with rating and evaluation organizations. Manhunt 2 could very well be the end of the franchise.
