GamePro decided to take the sales graphs for the PlayStation 2, Xbox, and GameCube, and apply the basic patterns they saw in the charts for those systems to their current generation counterparts. Their prediction? The Wii wins.
Here’s the problem I have with such a method. Last generation didn’t have a console that was trying to appeal to non-gamers with their games. We’ve seen what such a strategy can do by the sales of the DS. GamePro’s analysis seems to suggest that early sales are crucial to a system’s lifetime success. If this were true, the DS would’ve been in trouble long before Nintendogs and Mario Kart gave it the boost into the stratosphere. Sure you could say that DVD attracted new customers, but we’ve seen what the new consoles can do media-wise – the 360 through downloads, the Wii through the Internet Channel, and the PS3 through Blu-ray. Whether or not using the DVD drive for parallel comparison holds much ground could be argued.
In addition, this generation is seeing all three parties branch out in their own directions moreso than ever before. That, and I don’t think we’ve had to factor in a competitor with a $600 system for a long time. I don’t buy this method of prediction, but then again no one can really predict the future. So at least it’s something, and it could possibly give an idea as to the outcome by the end of the generation. Comments?
