Screen Digest says Wii to be in third place by 2010
Gamasutra talked to Ed Barton, one of several people who did research for Screen Digest, about their report for the next generation gaming consoles. In their predictions, Screen Digest placed the Wii in a distant third position yet again. If this generation of consoles were to sell as many total consoles as the big three (excluding Dreamcast) did in the last round, their graph puts the Wii at around 30 million units sold – a 50% increase over GameCube’s numbers, but far short of the PlayStation 2’s 100 million plus.
Asked if the reservations with the Wii were based on its current inability to compete in that broadband content delivery method, then, or if it was based on previous Nintendo home console performance as well, Barton said, “I think that the non-gaming story is potentially an exciting one, and that the comparison to the GameCube is an instructive one, in that the GameCube also started incredibly well, but you have to take a view of what’s happening more than a few months out of the starting gates.”
“As market forecasters,” Barton admitted, “it’s very hard to take a view on a new strategy which is effectively what Nintendo are executing with the Wii. They’ve stepped aside in the graphical arms race, and improvements in graphical technology in a gaming sense has historically been what’s driven market growth, and having seen what they’ve done with the Nintendo DS – which obviously they’ve executed fantastically, and which has basically created a new gaming phenomenon – we don’t deny the possibility that this is a possibility with the Wii.”
“But we need to see publisher support going forward,” he added, “and over 2007, going into 2008, maybe there’ll be various tipping points with publisher support on various big exclusives. We’ve already seen things like Dragon Quest going exclusive on the DS, but if we see those kind of tipping points on the Wii, we’ll have to amend our view, clearly. But at the moment, this is the view we’re taking.”
Mr. Barton admits that it’s far too early to be absolute certain however. He does clarify that if Nintendo is able to execute with the Wii pretty flawlessly, then his team will definitely rethink their predictions. However, we do have to admit that Nintendo has been on a hot streak lately. Is it luck? All eyes are definitely on Nintendo, just in case. But we really hope it’s more than that, and that Nintendo knows what they’re doing.
